What future do you want?

March 10, 2016

What future do you wantUsually, when my customers contact me, their purpose is to have me tell them my vision of the future. Since the dawn of time, people have always had the secret hope that someone can tell them about their future. People have always sought to reduce uncertainty and looked for a more predictable future, be it in the stars, in a crystal ball, in cards or goat insides. If the purpose is the same, there are different attitudes and expectations when it comes to the future. I would identify four main types of requests.

Some are interested in what I would call Fantasy Future. Their expectation is not so much to have a realistic view of the future but they want to see a picture of unlimited possibilities. Their focus is primarily on the potential of new and as futuristic as possible technologies. They want to stimulate their imagination as much and as possible. Presentations that sound a bit like science-fiction fit quite well for such audiences. Whether such a future is actually possible and viable is secondary. Escaping from hard rational reality of day-to-day operations is a great way of getting new hopes, see new opportunities and building a dream about how thing might be. There is no real timelines for when that future might take place and it is fine, as it is not so important in this context.

Another form of future that is also in the realm of fantasy but more dangerous is what I call Wishful Thinking Future. For as much as with the Fantasy Future, it is clear that the predictions are quite speculative and the tone is more one of entertainment, those who tend towards Wishful Thinking Future have the tendency to think that, just because they believe in a particular scenario, it will and must happen, regardless of whether it makes any sense from a technological, practical or economic point of view. Usually, those who look at the future from the wishful thinking angle rarely do a thorough analysis of the actual possibilities and of how sensible their scenarios are. Quite often, they do not have the thorough set of skills and knowledge to carry out such an analysis. They seem more interested in pushing their dogma on others and they generally have a hidden agenda. The danger here is that it misleads and even possibly deceives the public. In the end, it is a major waste of time and money. Unfortunately, Wishful Thinking Future is much more common than one may think and unfortunately not that rare with some so-called influencers with some ego, and that is where the danger lies.

I enjoy some Fantasy Future once in a while. It is entertaining and, usually, the audiences that are interested are quite relaxed and curious. There is always a good energy in such meetings. However, I always present the futures scenarios in a very practical way to connect my story to the day-to-day activities of my clients. I also always present the limitations and what I think the odds of such scenarios are to actually concretize, so that my clients keep in mind what to expect. I do not engage and cannot stand the Wishful Thinking Future. Making people believe things that are not realistic, not possible or, worse, not true, is not in my DNA. I have exposed some non-sense quite a few times in the past, which is usually rather simple with the help of grade 6 math. Yet, I am always surprised how non-critical most people are and many fallacies get spread quickly and reach large numbers of people through social media. Fortunately, there are more alternatives to sketch a more sensible future. We live in a world where many one-eyed try to be king of the blind, I see my function to get my clients have 20/20 vision.

One approach towards realistic future scenarios is what I call the Likely Future. It is based on actual trends and historical patterns. The scenarios are the result of a rational analysis and usually such scenarios have a high probability to realize. In a sense, it is a cautious approach of the future. On the one hand, it takes into account facts and data and on the other hand the emotional and psychological aspects of human behaviour. It has little to do with fantasy and absolutely nothing with wishful thinking. It is based on verifiable facts and the scenarios can be discussed in a rational manner. It may not be the most exciting exercise but is creates the basis for the development of alternative scenarios and to assess their feasibility and assumptions by identifying areas of uncertainty. I wrote my first book, Future Harvests, with this approach in mind. What was the result? Pretty good because most of the issues that have now gone mainstream were all mentioned in the book, which I wrote in late 2009 and early 2010. Many other issues mentioned in the book certainly would deserve to get the same exposure but getting the message to the average person is a baby step process. Clearly, my approach of likely future works. I wanted to see whether the world could feed 9 billion people. I just wanted to get to either Yes or No, and I found the answer, and I also debunked a lot of myths and fallacies in the process. To me, the Likely Future is a good first step towards a strategy, but it is only a first step. By connecting such scenarios with resources, ambitions and desires for the future, it is possible to go to the next approach of the future, in my opinion the most interesting but also the most challenging: the Desirable Future.

The Desirable Future is really a lot of fun to investigate. It mixes the Likely future with the development of a vision. In this regard, it makes both brain hemispheres work. It combines a rational approach with strategy, creativity and leadership. By using the Likely Future as a basis, it aims at not taking the outcome as inevitable. It is a matter of finding out what will be if we act “normally” and then challenge it to deliver a better prospect. It leads towards a positive, collaborative and stimulating vision of the future. It is an extensive exercise that includes many disciplines and many stakeholders. Futurists mostly like to talk about technologies, but building the future depends much more on leadership and managing human nature than it does on technology, which will only offer tools to achieve future goals. Technology is only as good as the use we make of it, as I explained in a previous article. Earlier on, I mentioned both brain hemispheres having to work together, but the cooperation goes beyond what is inside. It calls for a collective approach. It requires enthusiasm and respect of others. It is about building a better world for all and not just for a few. There will not be a better world if a select few build a future for themselves only. The Desirable future is by far my favourite approach. It is energizing and an endless source of hope and happiness for me. This is why I sketched quite a few avenues about the Desirable Future in my second book, We Will Reap What We Sow, which was ahead of its time when I wrote it and still is (unfortunately?) and still will be for years to come (that’s fortunate for me!)

So, dear reader, what future are you most interested in? The answer is important because it will shape yours!

Copyright 2016 – Christophe Pelletier – The Happy future Group Consulting Ltd.

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Adapting our thinking to the future – part 2

May 14, 2013

At the end of part 1 of this article, I had mentioned how our elders used to make progress by blending the modern with the traditional. It is quite important to keep this way of looking at our life environment quite alive. How we evolved to where we are today determines very much why we have the current possibilities available. They are the direct result of our history. Whether we like it or not, our future has its roots in our past. The art is to improve what we have, and to improve, we need to learn from the mistakes of the past. Rejecting solutions for the simple reason that they are old-fashioned or not based on science is really excluding diversity, while diversity is the fuel of progress. Reducing diversity comes down to reducing options to move forward. As someone who looks toward the future and tries to find out what is likely to come as well as what is desirable to create, I find this balance between past and future especially interesting. I often am surprised to see how many people are actually busy reinventing the wheel, while they think that they are busy innovating. Many projects and research that I see taking place have actually already been carried out in some way either in another place or in another industry. I regularly have to tell some of my contacts about similar projects that took place years and sometimes even decades ago. This is why I always insist on the need to be curious. For the future, curiosity is an asset. I could never urge anyone enough to have an open mind for anything that happens anywhere and in any industry. Maybe, I am doing some sort of transfer about this and I wished others would be as curious and eager to learn as I am, but this is so helpful to foresee the changes to come, that anyone who is interested in the future should be wired like that. Unfortunately, I find most people to not be really curious. They seem to be interested in what will serve them directly in the short term, but much less for what may serve others now but also in the future. Until someone can tell me that it is better to limit one’s perception and understanding of the world and of its possibilities, I will keep being curious and open-minded.

People really need to expand their horizons. Not only is it useful to be prepared for the future, the main reason is that it is incredibly fun to learn to know new things and new people. For the sake of humanity, it is time to open up towards others. The attitude of future business will not be about pushing new products and services to others, but to have a “what can I do for you “ and “how can I help you” mindset. The business of the future is the one that delivers solutions. In the future, successful products will be at least as much about the service included as it is about the actual physical product. This is what circular thinking will deliver. In a future where others are really what matters the most, the social perception will also change. “Old boys clubs” (which are nowadays just as much girls clubs) and other clans are not really the most dynamic organizations. There is no doubt that they are incredibly comfortable, because they are basically made out of clones. Everyone thinks the same, shares the same values, comes from the same university or social group, lives in the same country or region, has the same feeling of importance, and looks to the outsiders just as such: outsiders. There is a lack of diversity; therefore there is a lack of progress. A new interesting development that, to me, shows the quality of networks has appeared recently on LinkedIn. They visualize how much of your network belong to which organizations. I recently have seen some of the apparently very social individuals that have close to 40% of their network linked to only one company, and the second organization in his network only 1%. To me, that does not spell open network. And I thought that the main organization in my LinkedIn network was already high at 5%. Personally, I prefer by far those who have a balanced distribution of their networks. The chances are much higher that people who have a more balanced distribution of their networks have been exposed to more diversified experiences, and are likely to be more open and more flexible to different or challenging ideas. For a successful future, we must not think in terms of networks, but we all should be interconnected in the same one that would be the complete integration and interaction of all the ones that exist. My customers have demonstrated this to me. About all of my business has come from my being on the web with this blog and my books. They caught my customers’ attention who decided to get in contact with me. None of them knew me personally beforehand. The result has been business. Actually, I have not prospected once for the Food Futurist services. I just found a way of being visible beyond any limitation of network boundaries. The Food Futurist has become part of that global web.

One of the main differences between nowadays and yesterday lies in how intricate our world has become. In the past, things used to be more compartmented. Today, the whole world has opened. Knowledge travels fast and is accessible from almost anywhere on the planet. The level of interaction between industries and technologies is much higher now than it used to be. Most innovation that will help progress in food and agriculture in the future will not originate from the food and agriculture community, but from many different fields such as robotics, nanotechnologies, telecommunications, software development or medicine, just to give a few examples. Although technology will definitely play a major role in improving what we do, it will be important to not see technology as a panacea with dictatorial tendencies. I always underline the importance of the balance that we must maintain between technology and steering human nature for the best. In the end, technology is only as good and useful as the way we use and master it. Just take the example of gun powder. When the Chinese started to use it, they made fireworks for entertainment purposes. The “white man” chose to use it to kill others. Clearly, a similar technology used with different philosophies of life will serve different purposes. This is still true with today’s technology and it will be true with tomorrow’s. It will depend on the leadership. Technology needs to pass the test of morals and ethics, unless we accept that it might serve to be used against us. Technology and leadership go together, just like science and philosophy do. It is important to not forget it. If curiosity is an asset for the future, clearly, so is having a critical mind for the reasons just presented. It is essential to keep control on what we do and that we address concerns. Of course, this may delay some valuable financial objectives for some, but the quality of the future will depend on us doing the right things. The debate that results from critical thinking may be time-consuming, but open debate is an integral part of the democratic process. Open debates protect us from going back to dark ages. Looking back how what such ages have caused in human history, and unfortunately still do in some parts of the world, the need to learn from the past is clearly essential for a prosperous future.

Thinking ahead like a chess playerOther advantages of critical thinking are that it stimulates reflection and is a source of ideas. It is also important to make clear that critical thinking is not about criticizing but about questioning. Sterile boring criticism is just as useless for our future as not thinking at all. Let’s face it, critical thinking is not easy. It requires emotional distance. It is about accepting that what we may have believed appears to be wrong, or that they are better ways and beliefs. To be a good critical thinker, one needs to have enough confidence to overcome disappointment and to accept to change the course. Not that many people are willing to deal with such challenges. Yet, if we want to prepare for a prosperous future, we will have to accept that exercise, because, the future will be quite different, and in particular our interaction with our environment and the world will change and evolve further. Critical thinking actually requires a rather Zen mindset. One needs to have the calm and openness to observe and listen before speaking. One needs to accept being wrong as the debate that arises from the exercise will also show the value of other people’s points of views. Critical thinking is an exercise in humility. Humility is a highly valuable, yet often neglected quality. Yet, it is essential to be humble when thinking about the future. The challenges are quite serious and dealing with natural forces that may or may not be about to unleash upon us will not be an easy task. We will need to understand our relationship with Nature and accept the idea that, in spite of all our cool technologies, we are vulnerable and mortal. One of the arts of future thinking will be about pushing the system while knowing where the limits are that we must not transgress. That is what sustainability really is about. We really do not want to open Mother Nature’ Pandora’s Box. To be equipped properly to face the future, we need leaders that will think like chess players. We need leaders in all areas of society that can understand how the consequences of their decisions and of their vision will trickle down through the system. They must be able to foresee what may happen when they make their moves. Many already hardly can foresee what comes next. Those we need are the ones who can visualize what happens two, three, four and more degrees ahead, so that they can adjust their choices and already develop alternatives before troubles arise. A good plan A always includes a plan B, and preferably even a plan C. Plans that lack alternatives are not plans, they are merely wish lists.

Copyright 2013 – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.


My second book is published

May 30, 2012

There it is!

After several months of work, We Will Reap What We Sow is now published. Hopefully, it will get as much attention as Future Harvests.

Click on the thumbnail below to view a short introduction video (Duration: 1:52)

More details are available on the We Will Reap What We Sow page


The Food Futurist is three years old

May 2, 2012

And what exciting three years these have been!

The reason for me to start The Food Futurist was my frustration about getting clear answers on the ability of agriculture to produce sustainably and to keep meeting future demand. Unlike today, there were not many articles about feeding the world by 2050, simply because food was cheap and the world seemed to experience a never-ending economic boom. Things changed and a couple of food price increases got the attention of many who did not pay attention, while they should have. The few organizations that were addressing the topic did not publish anything satisfactory to me. The doom and gloom messages of we need two Earths (three or even four for some) did not really bring any useful response.

This is why I started this blog. I wanted to write down some of my thoughts and sort out the information that I could find. At the beginning, I had no master plan about what it could become. Then, I started to see the traffic on this website grow by the day. I realized that the future of food and agriculture mattered to many people, and that happened all around the world. This led me to write Future Harvests in the winter and spring of 2010. At that stage, it felt a little lonely, in the sense that my investigations did not support many of the mainstream thinking. Very quickly, it became very clear to me that hunger was about much more than just food production. I also could deduct from numbers that the world already produced enough to feed 9 billion with a sufficient and balanced diet, even 40 years before the mythic year of 2050. When I make that statement, I can see eyebrows rise. This fact still is little known, even within a number of organizations involved in food and agriculture. I am always surprised by their surprise. The good news is that, nowadays, more and more people and reporters bring it up. Feeding the world gets easier once some myths fall. In an article, I had indicated that world agriculture has the potential to feed 12 billion. Needless to say that I was pleased to read that same number on the FAO website a few months later.

What I discovered was the scandal of food waste, the relative lack of action to fix it, while the numbers show that it is quite feasible and not that expensive at all. By then, the issue was a matter within rather confidential circles. The economic crisis, especially in the USA, has opened the eyes of the aberrant behavior of consumers in rich countries. Considering that 30% of food is lost and wasted, this issue could not stay under the radar. I have raised it every time I could, and I hope it contributed somehow to an increased awareness of the problem.

Similarly, through my preliminary research, it became obvious to me how large the potential of Africa is for food production. A couple of years ago, I was one of the few who were claiming that Africa could and should feed itself, as well as it has the potential to become a net exporter. I got the same risen eyebrows and skeptical looks from my interlocutors. By then, reports about Africa were about all the usual negative stories. The only story about African agriculture was the so-called land grab, with the emphasis on making it a neo-colonialism. None of the articles I could read even bothered estimating the potential of food production. For the sake of rejecting this neo-colonialism, the only stance was apparently to consider the status quo, poverty and hunger, the better choice. How pathetic was that? A couple of years later, everyone is talking enthusiastically about the great potential of Africa, and how much the world needs it. My words in Future Harvests were “what happens in Africa will affect us all, for better or worse”. I am glad that more and more people see this. Nowadays, there is a lot of enthusiasm about Africa. To that, I would warn that there also still are many challenges to overcome.

To me, what made Future Harvests different from other publications was the fact that it was comprehensive and non-partisan. In particular, the comprehensive character of Future Harvests makes the book a cut above from other publications. Usually, reports, articles and books about the topic of feeding a growing population are focusing on a particular area or with a particular bias to try to influence the thinking about future decisions. There is none of this in Future Harvests. I looked at all areas, the land, the desert, the cities and the oceans. As many systems are no longer workable for the future, I reviewed many innovations to see if there were alternatives. The section of Future Harvests dedicated to innovation presents an abundance and diversity of ideas being developed. It is not exhaustive because the list would be too long. My purpose was to give an idea about the resourcefulness available to fix problems. Those who read the book confirmed that such creativity gives a lot of hope. In the book, I also emphasized the need for pragmatism. Too many articles try to advocate for either big large-scale industrial agriculture or for all natural, small-scale subsistence-like farming. None of them is a universal answer. Anyone with knowledge of agriculture knows that farmers must adapt to their natural, political, social and economic environments. The right production systems derived from a harmonious balance between these components. Dogmatism is rigid and rigidity is an impediment to the ability to adapt.

Hope is certainly better than the doom and gloom people out there. It is sad to read sometimes how negative they are. It feels like they are trying to demotivate people who have positive energy, for God knows what purpose really. One rather famous expert in the field of environment and agriculture, who actually has been an inspiration for me to get in this food and agriculture foresight business has become a disappointment to me. Statements such as “we are only one poor harvest away from a food crisis” or “the urban poor will be the most affected by high food prices” do not tell anything that anyone with half a brain already knows. Everyone can push to an open door. It does not take an expert. However, the media love this kind of depressing and scary stuff.

Now, The Food Futurist has reached its third anniversary. This work has brought me a lot of satisfaction. Future Harvests sold nicely, although I hardly advertised for it. I have done work for large organizations in the field of food and agriculture about the topic of the future, and the demand keeps coming in. The interesting part is that I really do not advertize at all, except for what I write on this website. My customers appreciate much more than the knowledge I bring. They like the fresh angle from which I look at the subject. My being independent is conducive to candid discussions without the tension that some of the controversies in food and agriculture usually cause. We review what is best for the future. The criticism is positive and always focuses on developing viable solutions.

Three years after I started writing and speaking about the future of food and agriculture, every newspaper is publishing a story on the topic, every company or non-profit in the food sector is posting a YouTube video about it. Unfortunately, most of them are rather incomplete and tend to repeat the common myths. Many of them, not all of them, seriously overlook the number of dots that need to be connected, and the complexity of the entire system. The risk is that we might end up barking at the wrong trees and address problems sub-optimally because of that. Anyway, they bring the issue to a larger audience. That is what counts the most. It is also very humbling to see groups of a couple of hundreds of scholars and experts from all over the world spend a couple of years to publish reports on the subject, and to see that, so far, I have not forgotten anything in my books.

Since I like to be ahead of the pack instead of following it, I am bringing out more material. Soon, I will publish my next book “We Will Reap What We Sow”. This book will focus on two areas that are rather neglected, yet essential to succeed in balancing food demand and supply. They are human nature and leadership. Human nature’s little flaws make it a fascinating subject, while they certainly raise reasonable concerns about humanity’s ability to do the right thing. Leadership has the role to alleviate these flaws. It has the duty to make society function properly by enforcing the values that ensure long-term sustainable prosperity. The book mixes number crunching and rational elements with a more philosophical reflection on how humans can work together to produce the food they need, while at the same time maintaining the capacity to do so for the generations to come. Diets, functioning of markets, influence of prices on people’s decisions are all presented in We Will Reap What We Sow. As the title suggests, the book indicates clearly that, although we are free to make the decisions that are best for us, we cannot escape the consequences of our actions. In these three years, I have gathered so much material and knowledge, that I will publish soon a third book which will be a quick overview of which parts have potential for which food production. Tomorrow’s powerful nations are the ones that have something the world needs, and food is one of these things. That will be the theme of that last book.