Some of my past predictions

My two favorite past predictions are:

  1. The FAO published an article on June 15 2013 with the same title as an article I published on my blog on December 4 2014, called Hunger is more than about just food production. I was quite pleased to read that I had come to the same conclusion as a Nobel Laureate of Economics two and a half years before he did. Not too bad, isn’t it?
  2. In We Will Reap What We Sow, published in May 2012, I made an estimate of the market value of food losses and came up with an amount of $900 billion. In November 2014, the FAO (Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) published their calculation of the same. Their number 2 1/2 years later: $1 trillion. I feel a bit proud of my estimate

After all, the best indicator of a futurist’s foresight abilities is his/her track record of past predictions. Here are some of my most significant past predictions years before they made the news:

  • The importance of diet and nutrition for future food security and food production sustainability
  • Difficult cohabitation in the Black Sea Region and renewed ambitions of Russia in the region
  • California’s vulnerability to water scarcity
  • Recurrent food prices increases
  • The growing criticism on ethanol production from food crops
  • The scandal of food waste and post-harvest losses
  • The coming use of drones, robots, sensors, driverless tractors and big data in agriculture
  • The higher demand for animal protein, and how it would affect food price volatility and profit margins of producers of animal products
  • The increasing concern of governments about the functioning of agricultural markets
  • The phenomenal potential of Africa for agricultural production
  • The problems of weed resistance and insect resistance with GMO crops
  • The impact of the waste of food, water, energy and natural resources on future food security
  • The unrest in Arab countries
  • The shift towards increased animal welfare standards
  • The rise of urban farming
  • The need to innovate in order to increase the efficiency and the sustainability of food production and food supply

… and in my books, you can find many more predictions that will come true. I made most of these predictions long before they were mainstream or part of the media hype. For most of my predictions, the reaction from my audience by then was to look at me as if I had a sunstroke, which I usually see as a good sign. I just saw future evolution before others did. If I were predicting what everybody already heard about, I would not be very useful.

With the name of my company (The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.), I stated many years ago the crucial role of happiness for a prosperous future, long before the economic crisis made it a topic of interest.

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