Tag Archives: Industry Future

My take on artificial intelligence

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Although the topic is on everyone’s mind lately, I have been presenting my views on artificial intelligence at conferences for more than a decade, long before it became trendy. I developed my logo with AI, and I use AI tools in my work as well, so it is not that huge of a deal to me. I was not really planning on writing a post about it because:

1) there are already so many of them around;

2) I have done presentations including the subject for many of my clients for many years and I even mentioned it in one of my poems about technologies from Down to Earth, my poetry book that I published in 2021;

3) it is just not me to jump in and follow the herd just for the sake of getting some attention.

It is just that I read a recent article, which triggered me to change my mind and get at the keyboard.

The article was about the result of research carried out by Harvard Business School, Reskilling in the Age of AI. The part that I found quite interesting was that according to this research, artificial intelligence was to reduce the gap between mediocre consultants and the “elite” consultants. The mediocre ones saw a performance boost of 43% thanks to AI, while the performance increase for the top consultants was much more modest. My spontaneous reaction was to conclude that businesses should either work only with top quality consultants or just eliminate the middleman when it is one of the mediocre ones and just make the switch to AI themselves, which is kind of what I hinted at in the one of my answers when I set up my FAQ section many years ago.

Another anecdote that shapes my views on AI and digitalization is what happens if there is a slight mistake in an online order. If the system does not recognize something in the information submitted, then we are dealing with artificial stubbornness, which is second to none, not even the “natural” one. I am sure many of you have experienced the frustration of dealing with an automatized package tracking system, and the agony of finding a real person who might be able to fix the problem.

Let’s face it, AI is still in its infancy and there is a whole world to open up in the future. As an illustration, I post in this article two slides taken from some of my presentations, which were not about AI as such, but in which I indicated in what respect the current automation in food and agriculture differs so much from the previous mechanization from the 20th century and earlier. The “old” automation was basically to replace human -and animal- labour and allow one person to perform physical tasks that had required much more individuals before. Mechanization was really all about adding “muscle” to the farmer and the worker, and sometimes to replace them, too.

The 21st century automation, although still adds muscle, is much more about adding a nervous system. Satellites, sensors of all sorts, management software, robotics, driverless vehicles and the many new technologies, when combined, actually mimic the nervous system as we know it. There are limbs, contact organs, senses and nerves that transport and transmit information that the brain (the intelligence centre) will process and send instructions back to the entire system to take action in the field, in the factory, in the logistics or in the store or restaurant. As the flow of data is essential for effective performance, it is clear that the synapses are of the utmost importance for this artificial nervous system. This why all the new technologies must be looked at from a system point of view and how they interact with one another. Developing technologies independently is a mistake, as it will miss many points.

So, we are building a nervous system, and since it is in its infancy, the way forward is really to treat it as an infant and follow the same process and the same steps that are required to develop a new human being and bring it up into a well-functioning grown-up. First, it is important to develop its cognitive abilities by exposing it to many experiences as possible, under serious supervision, of course. This will help the development of the right connections and the right amount in the nervous system. That is essential for AI to be able to function and deal with new and unknown situations and problems that need to be solved. When I was a student, one of my teachers had defined intelligence as the ability to cope and overcome situations never met before. I like that definition. As the “subject” develops further, it will need to learn more and more and, of course, the way to learn is to get a solid education, which means gathering knowledge, understanding how the knowledge connects together, and to be able to exercise critical thinking, therefore discerning what are true facts from what is raving nonsense. The learning process must be built on serious sources and there, too, serious supervision is needed. Just like with education, the system needs to be tested for progress and when difficulties arise, there must be proper monitoring and tutoring to help the “student” achieve success. The “subject” is still young and can still be subject to bad influences that might undermine its ability to identify the correct information and reject the nonsense, and thus perform properly. Really, developing AI looks a lot like raising a child all the way into adulthood.

The user also must take proper action to adapt and grow together with the nervous system. The artificial brain may be much faster at processing data that a human brain but humans using AI must be able to assess whether the outcome of the data processing makes sense or not. We must be able to spot if something in the functioning of the system is wrong, should that happen, in order to stop it from causing further errors and damage. If you use ChatGPT, to name a popular AI system, to write an essay and you do not proofread it for errors, both in content and form, then you expose yourself to possible unpleasant consequences. Automation and AI are to do work with us, not instead of us. Our roles will change, but just as it was not acceptable before, laziness (OK, let’s call it complacency) cannot be acceptable in the future, either.

Of course, like with any innovation, we must make a clear distinction between tool and gadget. So, what is the difference between the two? A tool performs a task, which has a clearly define objective and a clearly defined result. It must be effective and efficient. A gadget is just for fun and distraction. Tools evolve to get more useful. Gadgets do not,  and disappear when another gadget that is more entertaining comes along. 

Earlier, I was pinpointing the need to discern good sources of knowledge and information from nonsense. The saying “you are what you eat” is actually rather appropriate when it comes to AI in its current form. Indeed, the data AI is fed on will strongly influence what it produces.

In the food and agriculture production, supply and distribution chain, using AI should normally use reliable data, as the data should originate from a well-known and reliable source. Although the data can be quite voluminous, it is limited to these reliable sources, often the data of the producers themselves. Therefore, and as a tool, AI will be quite useful to tackle all the challenges that the sector is facing now and for the future. If the AI system that you use picks its data and information from an uncontrolled source, like the internet, you must realize that unless it has very solid safeguards to discriminate between truth and falsehoods, it will end up compiling the good, the bad and the ugly and thus further spread poison. Therefore, close scrutiny and monitoring is of the highest importance.

Further, here is a video on the subject that I posted on my YouTube Channel:

Copyright 2023 – Christophe Pelletier – The  Food Futurist – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.

My 2019: What’s ahead?

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The past year ended with its yearly ritual, the conference on climate change. The charade has become so predictable it is hardly interesting anymore. Nonetheless, they followed their traditional operation procedure:

  • Step 1: it will be challenging as there are strong differences of points of views between the participants
  • Step 2: Oh no, we might not have an agreement and we are running out of time to fix the problems
  • Step 3: We cannot seem to find any agreement but wait, they are going to have an additional meeting that was not on the schedule for the night in a last attempt to reach an agreement
  • Step 4: Hoorah! A miracle happened; the participants found an agreement and signed it
  • Step 5: (say it mumbling for better effect) well, the agreement did not include any of the really important points on which they cannot agree again but this is a breakthrough though, and the process will go on as next year’s conference will take place and this time we promise the points of disagreement will be discussed

I have to say it is all looking like the movie Groundhog Day. Personally, I am getting a bit weary of all the repetitions and in my field just as well. I hardly read anything new or interesting about the future of food and agriculture. Yet, there are no shortage of articles and reports but what they contain I had already written in my two books that are seven and nine years old. I even see more and more illustrations pictures of such articles that look eerily reminiscent of the cover of my second book We Will Reap What We Sow (which by the way is priced incredibly low –less than US$4.00- at amazon.com lately but apparently not on the other amazon country websites –don’t know why but it is a bargain for as long as it lasts). Here are a couple of examples of these illustrations

(From Food Business News December 2018)

(From Food Navigator October 2018)

(my book, from 2012)

If this shows that I often am ahead of the pack, which is a good thing for a futurist, I wish I were not this much ahead. In one of my previous articles, I was announcing that financial market troubles were coming back. Well guess what.

For me, the current “problem” is that I am not learning anything new and I do not see any real attempt to prepare for a prosperous future. Yet, by the sound of it, we will have plenty of food. Aquaculture will feed the world, so will insects and so will GMOs and so will organic agriculture and so will lab meat and so will synthetic foods and so will algae and so will small farms and so will industrial agriculture and so will tech and so will vegetarianism and so will vegan, etc etc… Sounds like we can sustain hundreds of billions of people, except for a couple of simple important details: all these options will compete with each other for resources, all of them will have to be profitable and sustainable… and they won’t be. Also, for as much as there are lots of start-ups and innovation (pronounce disruption if you want to sound trendy and modern), they do not really address any fundamental problems but are aimed at developing niche businesses instead with the hope to be bought by some large corporation for a high share price. Besides, the new innovation model is “innovate now, think of the consequences later”, which is the opposite of what responsible innovation should be in my opinion, but hey you have to do what you have to do to become rich quick. In the same spirit, I am rather disappointed by the so-called billionaire philanthropists who suddenly seemed to show some change of heart from their previous years of hard-nosed capitalism and greed. Since their net worth never seems to drop, I suspect that their charitable foundations and activities are just an excuse to develop financial constructions to move their money around without being hit by taxes. Actually, I do not see them donate their money but they do invest actively in start-ups or buy shares from existing corporations and cash in nicely when those are bought. The takeovers of Syngenta and Monsanto must have been great boons that made it worth their while to even promote those companies as being the future. No, they are not philanthropists; they are investors. Philanthropists give money away; investors are after capital gains. It is not quite the same. How many of these philanthropists have donated money to rebuild Puerto Rico? Have they even been there when Maria hit? And there are more examples of disasters where money that these guys do not need would have helped greatly to rebuild livelihoods but they did not show up. Let me try for a second to think of myself as a wealthy billionaire. Let’s say I would have 50 billion dollars of net worth. If I gave half of it for humanitarian goals (philanthropy from philo=loving and anthropos=human being), I still would have 25 billion dollars in the bank, which might sustain me for the rest of my life if I decided to live frugally, I suppose (yes it is sarcasm). The other 25 billion could do a lot of good. Of course, I would drop significantly on the list of the world’s most wealthy but I hope my ego could cope with that. Have you seen any of these investors rebranded as “philanthropists” actually do any such thing? Anyway, let me move on with the rest of this article.

Since I do not like to do the same over and over again, I am looking at 2019 as my last year with a focus on the future of food and agriculture. I will have done it for ten years, which is good enough and not only my writings are still as relevant as when I published them, I still see them as the most comprehensive look at the topic. I will not walk away from food and agriculture but I think I will focus on other things and my article for this year will show a shift of scope. I need change and I need variety, and it is missing at the moment. What I intend to do this year is a series of what I would call “what’s ahead” articles by presenting concise points about a number of topics that will be of increasing importance in the future. It still will be related with food and agriculture but will also take a look at the bigger picture. As such, it will be a bit of a repeat from my books but with focus on action points and breaking points. Among the topics I have in mind, here is already a tentative list:

  • Agriculture production location
  • Food prices
  • Water
  • World trade
  • Migration
  • Economy
  • Winners and losers
  • Urbanism
  • Social unrest
  • Health
  • Wars and conflicts
  • Big bang of fusion of ecology and economy

For the sake of variety, I will alternate with articles about lighter topics about proper nutrition and consumption behaviour. Expect to read quite about the following words:

  • Humility
  • Moderation
  • Common sense
  • Sensibility
  • Integrity
  • Altruism
  • Responsibility and co-responsibility
  • Pragmatism
  • Leadership
  • Courage
  • Respect
  • Vision
  • Incentive
  • Balance
  • Comprehensiveness
  • Practical
  • Transition
  • Commitment
  • Sacrifice
  • Love
  • … and probably many others

That’s all for now. Have a great 2019! And we will see what it will bring us.

Copyright 2019 – Christophe Pelletier – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.

My Wish List 2017

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Another year just started. It is always a good time to reflect a bit. As I have focused my activities for quite a few years on how the future of food and agriculture can be shaped, I regularly come across a number of the same little flaws that, in my opinion, delay the progress we can make towards a prosperous future.

Although the expression “keep it simple” is well-known, it seems that we have a hard time doing exactly that. I am amazed by the number of situations in my work in which I meet incredibly complicated set-ups. It is almost as if we have an almost masochistic tendency to make our lives more difficult than they need to be. Let me be clear, food production is a very complex system, but why make it even more complicated than it is? Too often, the problem is that food producers carry to much old baggage within their systems. Problems happen and innovations bring solutions. Unfortunately, it often results in adding layer after layer of old baggage. Keep it simple! Once in a while, just imagine how you would set up your production if you were starting with no past history and were setting processes and systems anew with all the latest technology, knowledge and experience. Then de-clutter! It makes life a lot easier.

Common sense is one of the things I would like to see more often. I remember a customer of mine who always enjoyed to say “With Christophe, if it makes sense he will deliver it; if does not make sense, he will say no” I know I have sometime frustrated some of my customers but I always took the time to explain how persisting in error would only result in bigger problems later and they actually always praised my no non-sense style. Remember that food production is not an intellectual exercise but a practical one. A customer will not reward you for your being intellectually stimulated, but for your reliability, consistency and honesty.

For the New Year, I also wish for more critical thinking. In these times of information oversupply and even fake news, it is quite easy to be misled. Sometimes it is accidental, sometimes it is intentional. Nonetheless, it always pays off to never assume and to double check. I pay special attention to numbers. Simple calculations help verify whether claims are true or not. I am amazed by how often I see numbers presented to the public that do not add up. Some numbers look spectacular and get attention, but that is no reason not to do the math again, just to make sure.

Another wish of mine is to see more listening and empathy, and less shouting and fighting in the debate about food. Too many arguments about this topic are a bit too Pavlovian for my liking. People are not rational, but they are always logical with themselves. It pays off to find out the logic and to have candid conversations. More than fighting about who is right and who is wrong, I prefer to see a focus on improving food production in a collaborative manner. Of course, it is easier said than done but he pays off because in the end, regardless of who is wrong or right, the customer is always right. The key for such a successful exercise is to use both our brain hemispheres and help our interlocutors do the same. How we will improve food and agriculture is really a balancing act between the emotional and the rational.

Another item on my list is humility. Every day, Nature and chance bring new challenges and sometimes opportunities. It is essential to stay on our toes. It does not take much for problems to happen and it is necessary to never slip into complacency. In particular, always beware of good times. It is always tempting to see successes be the result of one’s qualities and systems and setbacks as being caused by outside factors. It is tempting but it is rarely that simple. Adversity is the true test. An area of excessive ambition that humours me is when it comes to feed the world. I gently smile at statements such as “Insects will feed the world”, “Aquaculture will feed the world”, “So and so country or continent will feed the world”, etc… I smile because it sounds like we could feed the 10 billions of 2050 several times over. I say humour because it is more about excessive enthusiasm than a lack of humility. We will feed 10 billions –and I really believe that- through the combination of many foods and many production systems all over the world. There is no magic bullet. It will take dedication, work, innovation, market orientation and visionary leadership. It is a never-ending exercise.

Copyright 2017 – Christophe Pelletier – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.

My futurism

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The future has had the same intriguing appeal since the dawn of time. The reason is simple. Trying to predict the future is simply about reducing uncertainty. Looking into the future is about anticipating change. It is about preparing to adapt. Regardless of whether the motivation is fear, greed, pride, power or any other reason, the urge to foresee the things to come is really about one goal only: survival.

The material I offer focuses on how the future will affect my customers and what they can do to adapt and thrive. My approach to futurism is centered on how my clients can turn future changes into a competitive advantage for themselves. One of my main objectives is to show them how their activities are actually interconnected with developments that seem out of their daily world. It is quite easy to overlook these connections, but they exist nonetheless and will have an effect. Bringing the big picture helps create awareness and stimulates critical thinking, curiosity and questions. It makes the experience active and lively. The big picture broadens the scope away from the tech gadgets innovation part. It includes the human dimension, and the interactions between people and technology. It initiates a reflection about what to do and to use, as well as what not to do and what not to use.

In that regard, I could describe my form of futurism as practical and applicable. I do not limit my presentations and seminars to storytelling. Setting up a science-fiction-like story is rather easy to do. In very little time, anyone can gather the latest news about technological advances by going on internet and doing a search on these topics for agriculture and food. It probably will make this very website pop up high on the list. I have to admit that presenting scenarios that sound like science fiction always appeals to audiences. It has the mystique of an ideal world in the making where all problems will be solved by science and new technologies. Such an approach of futurism is fine for entertainment purposes. Journalists, writers and performers will excel in this kind of exercise. It is true that technology has brought many new possibilities. It has helped overcome many challenges, as well as it has open new frontiers. However, technology alone is not enough to describe the future. Especially not in an activity that depends so much on nature’s laws and nature’s forces as agriculture and food.

My Futurism

As a futurist, I often get the question of whether I have a crystal ball. It could be useful to have one, but so far I have not heard of any futurist predicting that crystal balls will ever exist. Ironic, isn’t it? Especially more so when some predict things as bold as plants will communicate to each other, as I read recently. If we can insert some sort of a nervous system in plants, I am sure crystal balls have to be in the realm of possibilities. Futurist can’t support that. I suppose it would put them out of business. I do believe that artificial intelligence will help replace them, as the technology will help create machines that can analyze faster, better and without interference from emotions and bias. One tempting pitfall to fall into is to try to make exact quantified predictions on market components, in particular prices and volumes. Until this day, I have seen many of such predictions fail quite sadly. After all, even computer models must contain in a factor of uncertainty. Personally, I do not try to give exact numbers, but I explain the trends and the dynamics behind to show in which range such specifics would land. Since food production and consumption can be influenced by many factors on which we have relatively little control, it is always good to remind audiences of such uncertainties. Although my approach may not appear particularly bold, my predictions are of rather good quality (click here to some of my past predictions).  For instance, when I started giving presentations or participating in panels, I crossed skeptical looks when I was telling that Africa is a region that has tremendous agricultural potential and that opportunities abound there. It has been ice since then hearing some of my apparently skeptical clients now seeing that continent as a key one for the future and theirs as well. Similarly a few years ago, I received amused smiles when I was mentioning the rise of robots, drones, sensors and other futuristic devices that would help farmers make better and faster decisions, and that in a time when I hardly ever heard any of the futurists talk about them. Now, most of them bring up this same topic. Yet, the information had been there all along. It was rather easy to know what was in the works. By then, agriculture had not reached the level of fancy it has lately. That will pass and practical analysis will replace entertainment. I also prefer to not make many predictions, which saves me from ending up tongue in cheek. I always give the preference to the sensible and the prudent. Until this day, it has helped my predictions to be accurate and valuable to my business partners.

Another important thing for me is to stick to a sector that I know and understand. I do not believe it is possible to have enough insights in everything. The more sectors one wants to follow thoroughly, the thinner the outer layer of practical and applicable knowledge he/she can bring over. The risk, in my view, is to fall back being the storyteller with the nice tech gadgets of the future. It is entertaining, but with little direct use for my public. I follow many sectors, always with the angle of what it might mean to food and agriculture. I am convinced that many developments that will help food production progress in the future will originate in other areas, but I am not going to pretend I am an expert in all these sectors. I stick to food and that is already vast enough a domain.

From my end, what I want is that the members of my audiences can go back home with several concrete points that are important to their work and that will affect them one way or the other during their professional life span, not in 50 years. Ideally, I wish they can start using my material the next morning to build a better future for themselves. Considering the lines of people who wish to speak to me after my presentations and the number of contacts that I receive afterwards, I believe that I reach both my goal and theirs.

With this philosophy in mind, I will add soon several programs that will be useful for my customers to envision, shape and build the future.

Copyright 2013 – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.

I am available for speaking engagements about the future of food and farming

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Updated February 9, 2011

Publications about the future of food and farming are on the rise. I probably was just a little ahead of the pack with “Future Harvests – The Next Agricultural Revolution” that I published last August. First, I saw that it took 400 scientists and two years to publish the Foresight report titled “The future of food and farming: challenges and choices for global sustainability”, published on January 24. It is an interesting report. Then, on January 28, The World Economic Forum released the report titled “A New Vision for Agriculture”, which involved 17 global companies, 350 leaders of industry and 18 months. This one I read as a typical WFE document about the future agenda of these large corporations, really.

I must say that having written my book in six months and not coming short of any of the points mentioned in both reports, I feel quite proud of my achievement. Future Harvests does not come short of any of the topics these reports address. In fact, these two reports come short of some critical factors for food security that I do mention in my book. From feedback that I received, Future Harvest appears to be even more informative and more fun to read than these reports.

It looks like I did a reasonable job, then. For once, I will pay myself a compliment. Apparently, my company is the little consulting firm that can! That will be the slogan from now on.

As this topic is gathering momentum, and more people are buying my book, I believe I should tell about the big picture and inform people about what is likely to happen in the future. This fascinating topic keeps an audience on their toes.

I am available for speaking engagements to present this topic or any other related to it. This is a great story for any group interested in learning about trends and future developments in food production and food supply.

So, if you and your organization, be it industry, non-profit or government, are interested in a presentation, please do not hesitate to contact me or to pass it on to someone who you know would be interested.

Future evolution of genetic engineering

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Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are one the most, if not the most, controversial aspects of modern food and agriculture. So far, the focus had been on offering farmers alternatives to pesticides and herbicides. The proponents of GMOs praise the progress made and they claim that agriculture production benefits from this. Opponents warn about all sorts of potential disasters in health and environment. The reality is that GMOs have been around for about a decade and a half, and they are here to stay. There is currently no sign that they would be banned from the Earth, especially since genetic engineered traits have been found outside of farm fields, as I had mentioned in a previous article.

At his juncture, and to think of how this technology –and business- will evolve, it is worth asking a few questions.

Has the use of GMOs been successful for agriculture and food production?

There are several levels in this question, actually. From the yield point of view, it is rather difficult to answer objectively, as there is little possibility to compare the respective performance GMOs and non-GMOs. From what I gather, it would appear that the Bt cotton may have delivered better results. For corn, the picture is much less clear. Actually, some varieties have proven to have rather disappointing performance. For instance, the genetically engineered corn from Monsanto failed to produce in South Africa, and recently their SmartStax variety (developed together with Dow) has had lower results than expected. This forced the company to drop the selling price per unit from US$24 down to US$8! The stock market did not appreciate. Clearly, GMO producers can make mistakes, and this is not particularly reassuring.

However, GMOS have delivered some benefits, too. In Argentina, the use of glyphosate-resistant soybean has allowed the production of soybeans to recover strongly from the brink of disaster. After many years of intensive monoculture of soybeans, the soil had been damaged to a nearly point of no-return, With the use of glyphosate-resistant plants, combined with no-tillage technique, farmers have been able to rebuild the level of organic matter in their soils. The result has been a huge increase of production, as farming conditions have been restored.

Opposite to this success story, a study from China concluded that the use of Bt cotton changed the ecosystem in such a way that pests that are naturally not sensitive to the Bt toxin thrived in cotton fields. This forced farmers to use other regular chemical pesticides to fight them, and the overall use of pesticides was actually higher than before the introduction of Bt cotton. The number of glyphosate-resistant weeds is a growing concern in many areas of the USA, and farmers need to use other methods to eliminate the weeds. Currently, the situation has come to a point that Monsanto is offering a rebate to its customers to buy and use herbicide from their competitors, so that at least they keep buying their genetically engineered glyphosate-resistant seeds, because they do not have the solution of the problem in-house. These two examples demonstrate a simple fact: genetic engineering is not a panacea that solves all the problems. It must be used as a part of a well-thought set of techniques. Producing one type of crop with the included traits without understanding the ecosystem that a field is, simply does not work. A field is not a dead zone. A biologically very active system resists constantly the attempts of humans to get it under control. Since the odds of developing a resistance for all available products is statistically close to zero, rotating herbicides and pesticides strongly increases the chances of eliminating the “super weeds” and the “super bugs”. Of course, companies would rather not promote their competitors products by advising farmers to rotate herbicides and pesticides.

Are GMOs necessary?

Considering the rather mixed results, it is quite difficult to answer this question with certainty. The technology of genetic engineering is useful because it offers the possibility to introduce desirable traits in plants. However, genetic engineering deals with genes, and the actions of the genes, as well as their interactions with other genes, are very complex. This is still a field where we have much to learn. Caution is required. Genetic engineering is only one of the many ways we have to increase and improve production. It certainly is not, as some would like to make believe, the only way. This is also important to keep in mind when it comes to developing countries. In these countries, the problem is not that all other techniques have reached their potential. Many farmers do not even have access to just good seeds. If they had, together with proper financing, access to input and adequate techniques, they would achieve much better yields. Since they are poor, how could they even afford to buy GMOs? In my previous article, Hunger is about more than just food production, I indicated how Africa could become a net exporter without GMOs. On the other hand, in developed countries, such as Europe, where farmers achieve outstanding technical results, for instance wheat yields 2.5 to 3 times as high as in the USA, what could be the incentive? Europe is food secure, actually several European countries are among the world’s largest exporters of food and agricultural products. Why would consumers be hungry for GMOs, while food is already affordable? People may not always be rational, but there is always a strong logic about why they do what they do.

Are GMO safe or not?

In all objectivity, there is no certain answer to this question, either. Until this day, there has not been any proven disaster linked to GMOs. Since in biology things may take a long time to come out, there cannot be any certainty that something is not already changing, either. This debate is between those who think that progress always brings some new uncertainties that should accept, and those who think that we should not take chances. Genetic engineering is still a young science, and 15 years is a very short period in ecological terms.

A related question about this is: “Is there a moral issue about GMO?” There certainly is something about morals in the debate. There is the theme of playing to be God. There is the theme of corporate profits vs. people and environment. There is the theme of the control of food by a select few, and that is about power. There is the theme of secrecy vs. transparency. This is also about a certain vision of the world, and about which values should prevail. There is the New World set of values vs. the “Old World’s”. None of these themes has much to do with science, but they are quite important to many people, and they will remain so for a long time. The controversy and the debate are far from over. The food retailers, such as the giant Carrefour, are now entering the debate. A new interesting element is the awakening of the US consumers who start to question food production; while until recently, they were rather passive in that area. Many things will happen and change. At this stage, it is rather difficult to say what will emerge.

What is at stake?

Next to the themes that I have just mentioned, the most at stake is money, and a lot of it. This industry would never have developed if they had not been granted the possibility to apply for patents and collect royalties on their intellectual property (IP). Without IP, there are no GMOs. Patenting life is in itself a controversial topic. This is especially more so when a whole plant becomes private property while only a tiny part of it has been altered. The original whole plant was the collective property of humanity. Without asking permission to mankind, and not even offering to pay a rent for this collective property, GMO producers have managed to become the owners. For many people, there is a feeling of wrong entitlement.

The key element is IP. This is understandable, because most GMO companies are spin-offs from molecule makers, from the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Their business has always been about investing large amounts of money in R&D to put new molecules on the market. Their philosophy behind GMO production is the same. They think like molecule makers, not like farmers. The objective is to develop products for which they can collect royalties to pay back for the R&D expenditure. The driver for this is the need to develop high margin products to satisfy the expectations of the shareholders. This is why GMOs were a logical step to replace gradually the chemical herbicides and pesticides, for which margins have been eroding. Something else needed to be developed to bring out solid financial results and future prospects. With the patent period ending soon, the existing GMOs will become generic products that will no longer be IP. This forces the producers to think of new traits to include, thus generating more IP for royalties. This leads to a new generation of GMOs

What will be the next phase?

We will see two different paths for genetic engineering. One is a market-driven genetic engineering aimed at solving actual problems that farmers need to overcome. This will not be so much about IP and royalties, but it will be about practical and affordable solutions. This area will be taken over gradually by plant breeders and to some extent with government support. They will focus on issues such as drought resistance, flood resistance, ability for plants to grow in saline soils, and ability to transform solar energy more efficiently into food by enhancing photosynthesis processes. An interesting case to follow is China. Over there, the government is already leading a nationwide restructuring of the currently fragmented seed industry to make it more efficient, and deliver solutions that will help the country improve its food self-sufficiency. Since China is quite involved in farming investments in Africa, we can expect to see Chinese seed producers become more aggressive on that continent, too. China has also clearly expressed that genetic engineering is a part of their new approach.

The molecule makers, as I like to call them, will choose a different path. They will look for sophisticated products for which they can receive a high margin in the market. Their objective will be to introduce as many traits as they can in plants and help them produce… molecules. They are more interested to produce high-tech novelties. They will become the Apple of biology. Chemical synthesis will be replaced by biotechnology. Their areas of interest will be pharmaceutical production and health, more than agriculture. The industry will introduce genes in plants to produce medicines that can be used to treat all sorts of diseases, such as diabetes, cancer, possibly Aids, and many others. They will also focus on the development of healthy nutritional components, such as high Omega-3 fatty acids content in oil seeds and the elimination of allergic components in current foods.

This next phase will see a change in the landscape of GMOs. Companies will make strategic choices about which segment they want to operate. There will be divestment of activities, and there will be new Mergers & Acquisitions, too. It is very likely that GMO producers will focus on biotech and sell their herbicides and pesticides activities to the companies that will choose to specialize in chemicals only. Pharmaceutical companies will get closer to GMO producers, and we can expect to see a new generation of biotech start-ups that will aim at being taken over by larger corporations. Some companies will choose for business-to business, while others will choose for consumer products. For pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, companies will subcontract farmers, while remaining in charge of the marketing of the molecules.

Copyright 2010 – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.

What a game changer my book is!

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Future Harvests has been published less than two weeks ago, and it is going to change my company rather profoundly.

What started as a blog on the side of The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. is now about to become the very core of my business.

Not only the book sales are already higher than I would have thought, the book is creating much interest for my other activities. The book has already been shipped not only to Canada or the USA, but also as far as South America, Asia and Europe. This is truly amazing.

The reactions to the announcement of the book’s publication have been amazingly enthusiastic and they made me feel like I had just produced something that many were waiting for. This is both very rewarding and very humbling, because working on solutions for future food supply to an increasing world population is a huge task. Since the publication, people with whom I never had contact before, from all around the world, have approached me, thanking me for having engaged in this venture.

New contacts are asking me to participate in conferences and to organize workshops and seminars for them. The CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) is interested in having me on one of their programs. Of course, the concrete discussions are still to come, but I have to admit that my Food Futurist is now showing incredible potential.

The part on policy making and strategy is getting more attention, too. This activity has the potential to become a solid business that will need to involve more people in my organization. I have already started to develop a plan for this. I can see interest coming from companies, professional associations and governments, not only in Western countries, but in many emerging countries, such as in South America, Southeast Asia, India, or Russia to name a few.

The first step that results from all of the above is for me to formalize the Food Futurist further into a more structured activity than it has been so far. This has started with my defining and posting the mission on all the business pages of the website. The mission is “To help our clients challenge today’s certainties, shape the future, and manage the transition with a targeted and practical action plan for the coming 10 years and beyond”.

The following step is going to be to develop business around this mission and the principle expressed in Future Harvests.

If you are interested in this, please do not hesitate to contact me. Talking is cheap. If you know people who would be interested, please pass it on to them.

As Humphrey Bogart’s character said in the movie Casablanca, “I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship”.

Future Harvests – A preview of the book

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My book, Future Harvests, is expected to be published before the end of August.

Here is a preview to give you a flavor of the content.

For a full view, please click on the thumbnails.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is a sample containing the table of contents and the preface of the book:

 

For the video trailers, please visit my YouTube channel.

Future Harvests – The book is coming soon!

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The editing of my book “Future Harvests – The next agricultural revolution” is about completed. All that is left to do is developing the cover and start the publishing.

I have already received orders, even before the book is out. That is quite a good sign. And a great surprise for me.

If you wish to be updated automatically when the book is published, just subscribe in the sidebar window on the right.

To describe the topics addressed, I have posted three short promotional videos on YouTube. In previous articles (The fun of writing this book and The next agricultural revolution), I had already given an idea about the content of the book.

Video #1: The Fundamentals (duration 2:37) – Introduction to the background and fundamental principles mentioned in the book “Future Harvests – The next agricultural revolution” to achieve food security for 9 billion people in 2050. Topics such as demographics, the shift in economic power, the control of food  and food security strategies are reviewed. Sustainability, innovation, efficient market driven food production and strong leadership are required.

or click here if video does not appear

Video #2: The Actions (duration 2:12) – A short review of some of the actions mentioned in the book to achieve the objectives. Solving the water challenge, finding new land for production, urban farming, hydroponics, farming the desert, rebuilding fisheries and developing aquaculture further are all possibilities.

or click here if video does not appear

Video #3: The Questions (duration 3:08) – A sample of some of the questions raised in the book. They cover technology, land deals in Africa, improving yields, restoring soil fertility, change in consumer needs, organic farming, risks of conflicts, biofuels or meat are some of the topics presented.

or click here if video does not appear

If you know someone who could be interested by the topics on this page, please pass it on!

The next agricultural revolution

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(Excerpt from my upcoming book, Future Harvests)

The next agricultural revolution to feed nine billion people will be different from the previous one. After World War II, agriculture advanced thanks to chemistry and petroleum. This time, biology and renewable energies will lead us to progress. It will not be just a revolution in science and technology. It also will be a different way to think about the economy and the environment. Knowledge and communication will become increasingly important, even more so than today.

Agriculture is a life science. Biological solutions will gradually replace chemical applications. All sorts of organisms will be involved to improve the way farmers and the food industry will produce.

Bacteria and viruses will help fight pests and diseases. They will help us reduce our use of chemical herbicides and pesticides dramatically. Genetic engineering will evolve and, as a business, it will mature. DNA science will focus on eliminating flaws and on increasing the metabolic efficiency of living organisms. Genetic engineering cannot continue to be about intellectual property and patents. Soon, seed companies all over the world will know how to do the same. Competition and market forces will determine which model will survive. Governments will not allow a select few to control food. They will get involved in genetic engineering programs and they will break monopolies. Genetic improvement will become collective property again.

Ecology will be a part of food production. Agriculture will manage ecosystems, and economy will become the management of the planet. Living organisms on land and in water will assist us. Farmers will think in terms of systems and cycles. Instead of isolating the field, they will integrate environmental parameters as well.

Organic matter will become central in the future agriculture. Farmers will recreate the cycles to improve the structure of the soil and its fertility. Agriculture will help fixing carbon. The use of mineral fertilizers will decrease sharply.

The economics of agriculture will be different, because the economics of energy will be different. New technologies will come. Solar power and wind energy will become common sources of energy. The economics of water will change, too. The management of water will reshape our food production. Water will become substantially more expensive and only systems that save and preserve water will survive.

Information technology will help make decisions faster than ever before. Portable computers will give the farmer the ability to get data almost instantly about the status of the crops, markets, health status and conditions of production. It will allow them to optimize inputs and outputs better and faster. It will save time, inputs and money. Knowledge and information will be our best tool to act efficiently and to improve our food production.

Transparency will become the rule. There will be no secret because consumers will be better informed and because there will be nothing left to hide.

The most critical part of the next agricultural revolution is leadership. Having a responsible long-term vision is critical, but it will not be enough. The world will need leaders that will make the right things happen. In all sectors of the society, there will be a need for such leaders who can muster the energies and who make the general interest and the long-term come first. The need for food security will alter our governance systems, in government as in business ethics. A challenge will be to manage greed and fear. First, there will be greed. Then, there will be fear. Until this day, humans have done a poor job of feeding the world. Famines have come and have gone and there still are hungry people. Humans have done a poor job at preserving their environment, too. With nine billion people, such a poor performance will have much heavier consequences. Procrastinate or being sloppy are attitudes the world cannot afford anymore. The proper leadership will come, but the change will not happen per accident. There will be a heavy crisis first.

Agriculture will regain its place in the economy as the most important activity. A change in the attitude towards funding and investments will also be part of the revolution. More players will engage in agriculture because returns will be higher for all.

The revolution will not just be for farmers and the other players in agriculture to carry out, but consumers will have their share to deliver. A change in mentalities is necessary. Wasting food is not acceptable. Selfishness will not work anymore. Food security is not a given, it is work in progress.

Copyright 2010 – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.