Do not worry. This is not a post about guilt. That is not my style. The post is about vulnerability.

As the holiday season is right around the corner, this is perhaps a good time to reflect on all the great work that food producers and distributors perform to provide us with food all year round. For all of us who are fortunate to be able to satisfy our hunger every day, we must make sure to not forget how fragile food security can be.

Many people clearly do not make the connection with agriculture. Of course, in urban centers, many young people have never even been on a farm. That disconnection is dangerous, as I had explained in an article that I published on this blog a long time ago (May 2009 to be precise).

In the recent past, there have been more volatility and uncertainty about food production. The price of foods that we were used to find easily and quite affordable have shown some sever fluctuation. Food inflation is here and it hurts many households. The reasons vary.

It can be because of climatic events. The surge of the price of beef is an example of the result of drought in a number of regions that forced farmers to reduce production.  Another example is what I saw in 2021 in British Columbia when an atmospheric river washed out many highways in mountain areas that had isolated Vancouver and seriously disrupted supplies to stores in most parts of the province. Shelves were empty, in particular for meat, eggs and dairy. There was a weird feeling in the stores and quantities were rationed per customers. The rationing still is in place for some of those products. Consumers are informed that they are not allowed to buy more than two pounds of butter or more than two trays of meat, for instance. Perhaps, this is a wise philosophy. At least, it has stopped some absurd and incredibly selfish hoarding behavior by some shoppers who would fill their carts and leave nothing for other customers.

It can be because of geopolitics and policies. Think here about how the conflict in Ukraine had affected the price of vegetable oils and grains. By then, many restaurants had stopped selling French fries and other deep-fried products to keep their meals affordable. EU policies are another example that affects the profitability and the type of productions that farmers are encouraged or mostly discouraged to produce.

It can be about diseases. Avian flu has affected availability and price of eggs and poultry meat. Remember that it even mobilized the US president to act on the price of eggs. The issue is still not resolved, far from that. It is not just animal diseases. Just remember how Covid affected trade and logistics. Shortages of flour, pasta and rice were common and took very long to be fixed. A lot of supplies were affected quite negatively. Store shelves were often empty or close to it. Diseases also affected plants, the most significant example was probably the Xylella fastidiosa bacterium that decimated olive trees in Europe a couple of years ago, resulting in a huge price increase of olive oil, and some fraud as well.

As you can see, it does not take much to disrupt food production and food availability. This is why we must be considerate about food production. This is not a warning to consumers only, although we are all consumers. This may sound surprising, but often, food producers seem to refer of consumers as if they were a totally different group from producers. This, as such, is also another sign of disconnection that we should eliminate. No, this warning is also for food producers who sometimes have a tendency to stunt nicely with statements about their products that can affect food security. Pushing for production systems that are inaccurately considered to “save the planet” can lead to negative results. Perhaps, some of you will start to believe that I have a fixation with EU food and agriculture policies, as I have mentioned it a few times lately. It is not a fixation. It is a reality and I am very concerned with EU food security down the road if they do not change their tune. There might be some signs that they are putting some water in their wine, though. Just let’s hope that they will put pragmatism before dogma. Perhaps, their change of mind about the 2035 mandate on electric cars is a sign. But it is not just the EU institutions that have influence. EU retailers, too, seem quite eager to profile themselves as virtuous by throwing all sorts of trendy buzzwords and making all sorts of statements to give themselves an aura of morality. It all sounds great but I suspect that it is more about marketing and to align themselves with the “flavor-of-the-month”-policies more than being actually effective decisions. If retailers truly cared about the planet and health, they probably should remove at least 80% of the items they sell.

Food production is very complex but it is not an intellectual exercise. It is about meeting the population’s needs for food, clothing and energy. That is quite practical and concrete. If we fail in achieving this goal, the only result will be chaos. Food security is all the difference between prosperity and unrest, between peace and war and eventually between life and death. That is why food security must be the #1 priority of any government. They make the policies that decide whether we use our resources wisely or inconsiderately. In another recent article on this blog, I discussed -playfully, yet seriously- whether Earth is maxed out or whether we can live in a world of plenty. It was an eye opener. In the end, the results of these policies and our future will be just of the same quality as our leaders. Just think about that when you choose your next leaders.

In the meantime, enjoy the holiday meals! And when you have time, just reflect on the title of this article.

I will be back in 2026.

Copyright 2025 – Christophe Pelletier – The Food Futurist – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.