What food will be Donald Trump be serving?

November 25, 2016

trumpfarmerAfter a rather unconventional campaign and an unlikely outcome, the American people named its next president. The many controversial and vague statements of candidate Trump have left most of the world with perplexity. The presidential election gets the most attention. The fact that the Republican Party will now control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, next to the White House received much less publicity, yet it will actually shape American policies in the coming years. The Republicans have full latitude to pass any law they want, with little opposition.

Is the Trump presidency something to worry about? It is difficult to say at this stage. It is probably a matter of hoping for the best and be prepared for the worst. Since his election, Donald Trump has sent mixed signals. He seems to realize that things are more complex than he presented during the campaign and on a number of issues he put some water in his wine, but at the same time some of his nominations to key positions in his future cabinet and staff raise question marks. It is always tempting to try to predict the future from a subjective angle but considering the show he put on during his entire campaign, it would be easy to jump to wrong conclusions. I prefer to look at his character instead. To me, Donald Trump shows a number of characteristics than I believe will define his presidency more than the controversies of the campaign.

As his victory in the election shows, Donald Trump is a fighter who does not give up and who is willing to fight dirty. He will be a tough opponent to deal with. Toughness is an asset but his weakness may lie in his black and white view of the world. For him, you win or you lose. Win-win may be a foreign concept to him and instead he might achieve more lose-lose outcomes. He also appears to be a pragmatic. He does not seem to have problems changing his mind if he finds out that some things are better than he initially thought, as he admitted about Obamacare for instance. Pragmatic does not mean that he will change is agenda, though. Clearly, he is a proud American and he will always put the interests of the USA and of Americans and of American companies first. There is also a bit of an idealist in Donald Trump. His campaign slogan to “Make America Great Again” reflects that. I believe that he has nostalgia of the America in which he grew up and that used to be the dominant force and culture in the world. Donald Trump is a smart man. He also appears to be a bit short-fused. The question is will he try to achieve his ideal by turning back at the risk of isolating his country and stagnating or will he create a new momentum and try to achieve a new leadership through excellence? Different approaches deliver different results

Regardless of these character traits, he is a hard-nosed businessman. He has clearly indicated that he will create a tax-friendly business environment and he will simplify regulations, which is not quite the same as deregulating, though. He will lead pro-business policies. In food and agriculture, this will probably lead to two consequences. First, the so-called Big Ag will get a push in the back from his policies. Donald Trump made a number of comments that indicate he has a problem with what he calls environmental extremists. The second consequence will be to see how he manages a pro-business stance with his expressed statements of also caring for the American consumers. Food fights have been vivid in the US for a while, in particular because of a distrust of Big Ag by many consumers. At this stage, it is difficult to say how Donald Trump will manage both the interests of corporations with the desires of consumers. I expect food fights to go on with the same determination as they do today. I also expect that the role and the mandate of the Environmental Protection Agency will be revised and weakened.

Altogether, for food and agriculture, I expect rather traditional conservative republican policies both in the US and abroad. America will try to get what it wants and will make it difficult for others to compete against them, as usual.  The world is a big place and new developments happen everywhere. Depending on America’s stance, the rest of the world will adapt its strategies accordingly. Some projects will be killed, such as the Trans Pacific Partnership. Other agreements and partnerships will be sealed both with and without the US. As I like to say when I have the opportunity: the future will be as bright as our leaders and we have the leaders we deserve.

Copyright 2016 – Christophe Pelletier – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.

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Who’s afraid of Brexit?

November 21, 2016

Brexit is a hot item. I am asked regularly what I think about it and I have to admit it is rather difficult to answer with any kind of certainty today. I hear and read all sorts of points of views and their opposites. The financial markets sent their messages and legions of experts have given their opinions but I see two main forces in what they tell us. The first thing is a lot of subjectivity. Most predictions I read seem to be more the result of spite, particular agendas or wishful thinking. It sometimes sounds more like what the pundits would like to happen to the UK and to the EU than the result of a solid analysis. The fluctuations of the Pound Sterling are also more the result of a lack of clarity than of a long-term view, but that is how financial markets work. Uncertainty opens the door to all sorts of rumours and speculations. When the crystal glass is too blurry, everyone develops his/her own scenario, which of course adds to the confusion, the uncertainty and the nervousness.

The only way to dissipate uncertainty is for political and business leaders to come out and say clearly what they are going to do and how. They also must explain what will change and that includes the good, the bad and the ugly. Brexit is about change and change always brings fear, which is really the fear of loss, as gains are usually never perceived as threats. The missing bit in the Brexit issue is the lack of clarity and communication about what the political leaders will do. Even the date of initiating the process seems rather fluid, not to mention those who say that it will not happen after all. As long as clarity and determination seem to still be missing, confusion will prevail. I believe that the situation remains vague simply because the leaders do not have a clear idea themselves of what to do with that referendum outcome they did not expect and therefore never really thought about what the next step should be. Just imagine what the reactions would be if the UK had the Euro as a currency and were part of the Schengen area…

road-for-the-ukWill the UK face an economic crisis or a recession? Maybe but maybe not. That would not be the first time and eventually the UK has always recovered. I do not see why this would be any different. I remember when Black Wednesday took place in 1992. By then, I was in charge of the UK market for a Dutch poultry processing plant. The UK was the main destination of breast fillets, our most expensive product and overnight the company turn-over was headed to a major nosedive. The Brexit excitement of today feels nothing like the panic of then. Regardless of how stressful it was, the Black Wednesday situation delivered some good lessons in term of business strategy that I am sure would be beneficial in today’s situation.

The first lesson for us by then was that having many of our eggs in the same basket was quite risky. The exchange rate and the law of supply and demand showed us that less attractive national markets became more attractive and we developed breast fillets sales outside of the UK, while the UK was more competitive outside of its borders. Markets dynamics changed but life went on. One of the most important functions of a sales department is to generate alternatives all the time. No alternative means there is no choice but to accept what the other party offers. The second lesson may be the most important. We had a good marketing strategy. We served the most demanding segment in terms of quality and we offered top-notch service. This made us the last suppliers our customers would want to eliminate and it gave us a solid leverage to renegotiate deals and compensate the loss due to the exchange rate. They wanted our product because it was supporting their business and they would not want to throw that value away. The third lesson is a correlation of the second one. We had chosen a specialized and growing market. By being market-oriented we were able to stay in demand and weather short-term market volatility much better than many of our undifferentiated competitors, both from the UK and the EU.

Because I have seen the benefit of a market-oriented value marketing approach, I can only recommend it as a choice in regards with Brexit. Even in a changing environment, if you have what the market wants, the market will want you. Crises are useful. They help eliminate businesses that are not adapted and not adaptable. The key is to find the customers with a future and help them to be so by delivering them superior value.

Copyright 2016 – Christophe Pelletier – The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.