My two favorite past predictions are:
- The FAO published an article on June 15 2013 with the same title as an article I published on my blog on December 4 2014, called Hunger is more than about just food production. I was quite pleased to read that I had come to the same conclusion as a Nobel Laureate of Economics two and a half years before he did. Not too bad, isn’t it?
- In We Will Reap What We Sow, published in May 2012, I made an estimate of the market value of food losses and came up with an amount of $900 billion. In November 2014, the FAO (Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) published their calculation of the same. Their number 2 1/2 years later: $1 trillion. I feel a bit proud of my estimate
After all, the best indicator of a futurist’s foresight abilities is his/her track record of past predictions. Here are some of my most significant past predictions years before they made the news:
- The importance of diet and nutrition for future food security and food production sustainability
- Difficult cohabitation in the Black Sea Region and renewed ambitions of Russia in the region
- Emphasis on reducing the use of antibiotics in animal farming
- Use of insects in animal feed
- California’s vulnerability to water scarcity
- Recurrent food prices increases
- The growing criticism on ethanol production from food crops
- The scandal of food waste and post-harvest losses
- The coming use of drones, robots, sensors, driverless tractors and big data in agriculture
- The higher demand for animal protein, and how it would affect food price volatility and profit margins of producers of animal products
- Plant-based meat imitations will underperform and the hype will fade quickly
- The increasing concern of governments about the functioning of agricultural markets
- The phenomenal potential of Africa for agricultural production
- The problems of weed resistance and insect resistance with GMO crops
- The impact of the waste of food, water, energy and natural resources on future food security
- The unrest in Arab countries
- The shift towards increased animal welfare standards
- The rise of urban farming
- The need to innovate in order to increase the efficiency and the sustainability of food production and food supply
… and in my books, you can find many more predictions that will come true.
I made most of these predictions long before they were mainstream or part of the media hype. For a number of my predictions, the reaction from my audience by then was to look at me as if I had a sunstroke, which I usually see as a good sign. I just saw future evolution before others did. If I were predicting what everybody already heard about, I would not be very useful.
With the name of my company (The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd.), I stated many years ago the crucial role of happiness for a prosperous future, long before the economic crisis made it a topic of interest.